The PetrolPlaza audio version is presented to you by UNITI expo, the leading retail petroleum and car wash trade fair in Europe.

World energy demand to grow 35% over next 20 years

Global energy demand is expected to increase by 35% between 2014 and 2035, according to the BP Energy Outlook published yesterday.



Last update:

This growth in overall demand by an average of 1.4% a year includes significant changes in the energy mix, with lower-carbon fuels growing faster than carbon-intense fuels as the world begins to transition to a lower-carbon future.

“In the middle of a downturn in oil and gas prices, it is important not only to adapt to the current tough conditions, but also to prepare for the next set of challenges. Energy is a long-wavelength industry and we need a long term perspective of how the energy landscape we operate in is likely to evolve,” said BP’s group chief economist Bob Dudley.

Income and population are the key drivers behind the growing demand for energy. By 2035 the world’s population is expected to reach nearly 8.8 billion, meaning an additional 1.5 billion people will need energy. Over that same period, GDP is expected to more than double, with China and India accounting for half of the projected increase, according to BP.

There will also be an increase in supply, with the share of shale gas in total gas production rises from 10% in 2014 to nearly 25% by 2035. Meanwhile, global liquids supply will expand by nearly 19 million barrels a day by 2035, led by growth in non-OPEC supply, particularly US shale oil.

Some other key facts provided by the report:

  • Renewables account for a quarter of global primary energy growth out to 2035 and over a third of the growth in global power generation.
  • EU energy demand in 2035 is back to where it was 50 years earlier, despite the economy being almost 150% bigger.
  • The US achieves overall energy self-sufficiency by 2021 and oil self-sufficiency by 2030.
  • China surpasses the US as the world’s leading oil consumer by 2035, but per capita oil consumption will remain just 27% of the US.
  • The growth of global gas consumption from 2014 to 2035 is more than the current gas production of US and Russia combined.
  • By 2035 coal accounts for less than 25% of primary energy, its lowest share since the industrial revolution.
  • China adds more renewable power over the Outlook than the EU and US combined.
  • Spare refining capacity plus planned additions over the next five years is enough to meet the growth in crude supplies over the Outlook.

You can access the full BP Energy Outlook - 2016 edition here

Related contents

Discuss